有關豬流感的科學的內容更新

Swine flu science update :

18 August 2009

Carol Campbell

Most researchers don't think a more dangerous strain of H1N1 will emerge

A poll of influenza researchers, epidemiologists and public health officials in several countries conducted by New Scientist last week (12 August) has revealed that most do not think a more dangerous strain of swine flu — influenza A(H1N1) — is likely to emerge.

But more than half said they were very or extremely concerned that their local health services would be unable to deal with a virulent wave of swine flu, with one health official in Africa saying her nation was "totally relying on the grace of God".

John Oxford, a professor of virology at Queen Mary, University of London in the United Kingdom, said those fearing increased virulence were harking back to the flu pandemic of 1918 which killed millions. "But it's different now. In 1918 it was like a missile into a virgin community, where everyone was susceptible … I don't envisage, at all, a 1918-type scenario," Oxford said.

And an analysis of 14 global or regional flu epidemics in the past 500 years has cast doubt on the widely-held view that the 1918 pandemic was characterised by increasingly virulent waves.

The review, published last week (12 August) in the Journal of the American Medical Association, found insufficient evidence of a milder initial wave followed by increased severity. It also found no pattern of wave-like surges in the disease across the 14 epidemics.

The authors stress that the A(H1N1) pandemic should be closely monitored, paraphrasing the Danish philosopher Soren Kierkegaard to say that "influenza epidemics are lived forward and understood backward".

An influenza A(H1N1) vaccine made in China is effective after a single dose, trials on over 1,500 people have shown, according to Bloomberg. The Chinese government has ordered four million doses which will be delivered by the end of September, said vaccine manufacturer Sinovac.

The country's health minister, Chen Zhu, was photographed last week (12 August) receiving a second dose of one of the vaccines under production by ten manufacturers in the country.

The future of the international, open access database of information on influenza, EpiFlu, could be in jeopardy because the two organisations responsible for its creation have become mired in a legal dispute.

The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) and the Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics are involved in legal proceedings over a row about funding.

While researchers can still access the database, officials are worried about the implications of the dispute in the longer term. Before the creation of GISAID, some countries, such as Indonesia, refused to share information on influenza.

Brazil has temporarily banned advertising on over-the-counter flu medicine in an effort to force people to see their doctors if they have flu symptoms, AFP reported last week (15 August).

The ban was ordered by the National Health Vigilance Agency, which said that to ensure accurate disease surveillance people must not self-medicate.

有關豬流感的科學的內容更新：

2009年8月18日

《新科學家》上周（8月12日）對幾個國家的流感研究人員、流行病學家和公共衛生官員進行的一項調查顯示，他們的大多數並不認為一個更危險的A型H1N1流感毒株有可能出現。

但是超過半數的被調查者說他們非常或極為擔憂他們的當地衛生服務將無法處理一波更具毒力的A型H1N1流感，而非洲的一位衛生官員說她的國家“完全是聽天由命”。

英國倫敦大學瑪麗王后學院的病毒學教授John Oxford說那些擔憂病毒毒力增加的人們回想起了1918年的流感大流行，後者導致了上千萬人死亡。“但是如今不同了。在1918年，它就像導彈擊中了原始社區，而每個人都是易感的……我完全不會設想一個1918型的情景。”Oxford說。

對於過去500年的14個全球或地區流感流行的一項分析對於人們廣泛認為的1918年流感大流行的特徵是病毒毒力逐次增加的觀念提出了質疑。

這項發表在上周（8月12日）《美國醫學會雜誌》上的綜述發現，所謂較溫和的初始流行之後出現更嚴重的流行的證據不足。 它還發現了在14場流行中不存在分波次的模式。

這組作者強調了A型H1N1流感大流行應該被密切監視，他們改寫了丹麥哲學家Soren Kierkegaard 的格言：“流感流行在未來，而向後看才能理解它。”

根據彭博新聞社的報導，在一項對中國製造的一種A型H1N1流感疫苗進行的超過1500人參與的實驗中，注射一針就有了效。疫苗製造商北京科興生物製品有限公司說，中國政府已經訂購了400萬份，這些疫苗將在9月底交貨。

媒體刊登了該國的衛生部長陳竺上周（8月12日）接受第二針疫苗注射的照片，這種疫苗正在由該國的10個疫苗製造商生產。

由於負責建立國際開放獲取流感資訊資料庫EpiFlu的兩個組織陷入了法律爭執，這個資料庫可能會面臨危險。

共用禽流感資料全球專案（GISAID）和瑞士生物資訊學研究所涉及到了關於發現優先權之爭的法律程式。

儘管科學家仍然能夠訪問這個資料庫，官員們擔心這一爭執的長期影響。在建立GISAID之前，一些國家——諸如印尼——拒絕分享關於流感的資訊。

法新社上周（8月15日）報告說，巴西暫時禁止了非處方流感藥物的廣告，從而迫使人們在出現流感症狀之後去就醫。

這項禁令是由巴西國立衛生監視機構發佈的，它說為了讓疾病監測準確，人們不應該當自行治療。

Douglas HUNG (洪明致)
Boehringer Ingelheim Taiwan Limited (台灣百靈佳殷格翰股份有限公司)
Head of Animal Health Division
Phone : +886225032636
Fax : +886225051041
Mobile : +886919523358
E-mail : douglas.hung@boehringer-ingelheim.com